Second wave of defections sweeps parties days before election

With only days to go before the 13th parliamentary election, a fresh wave of political defections is rippling through the country, spreading from senior figures to district leaders and grassroots activists and underscoring what analysts describe as a deep organisational and ideological crisis across parties.

The second surge in shifting allegiances – following an earlier round during seat-sharing negotiations – has seen leaders and activists move between the BNP, Jamaat-e-Islami, National Citizen Party (NCP) and Islami Andolan Bangladesh (IAB).

This time, however, the movement has gone well beyond headline names, reaching local party structures across multiple districts.

In many cases, former members of the activities-banned Awami League, Jatiya Party and the NCP have joined the BNP and the IAB, while IAB activists have defected to Jamaat-e-Islami and, in a smaller number of cases, Jamaat members have reportedly moved the other way.

Those switching sides cite ideological disillusionment, frustration at being marginalised, and a sense of political deprivation.

Political scientists, however, say personal calculation remains the dominant driver.

On 27 January, Azmal Sarker, president of the Jiyar Kandi union Awami League, crossed over to the BNP along with more than 100 activists at a programme held at Matrichaya School and College in Titas upazila, Cumilla. The event was attended by Selim Bhuiyan, the BNP’s Cumilla divisional organising secretary and its candidate for Cumilla-2.

Azmal said his loyalty had not been recognised by the Awami League and that he had been denied space to work for the public during the party’s time in power. Similar defections of Awami League members to the BNP have since been reported from Aditmari in Lalmonirhat, Saltha in Pabna, and Bhanga in Faridpur.

The traffic has not been one-way. On 30 January, Golam Mahmud Mahabub, a Barishal district BNP member and vice-president of the party’s Banaripara upazila unit, joined Jamaat-e-Islami with more than 100 leaders and activists. He was received by Master Abdul Manan, Jamaat-nominated candidate for Barishal-2 (Banaripara-Wazirpur).

Mahabub, who said he had joined the BNP in 1977, accused his former party of abandoning its founding principles. “BNP has now turned into a party for extortionists, looters, grabbers and addicts, which has no space in Jamaat-e-Islami,” he said.

“Their men fight for the independence, sovereignty of the country, and Islam. I joined the party to be a soldier for the truth.”

Elsewhere, on 23 January at least 50 leaders and activists from Jatiya Party and Jamaat-e-Islami joined the BNP in Rampal, Bagerhat.

A day earlier, at least 55 activists from the Islami Andolan Bangladesh unit in Makhaldanga union, Chuadanga, defected to Jamaat-e-Islami.

Masud Parvez Rasel, assistant secretary of the Chuadanga district Jamaat unit and the party’s candidate for Chuadanga-1, attended the reception.

Shahin Ali, health affairs secretary of the Makhaldanga union IAB unit, said, “We cannot integrate with the workflow and mentality of the central body of Islami Andolan. That’s why we joined Jamaat-e-Islami.”

Realignments have also been reported in the south, where former Awami League activists have joined the Gano Odhikar Parishad in Patuakhali, while Gano Odhikar members have recently moved to Jamaat-e-Islami in Jhalokathi.

Ahead of nomination submissions, withdrawals and seat-sharing talks, several prominent figures had already switched camps.

Among them were Jatiya Dal leader Sayed Ehsanul Huda, Gano Odhikar Parishad’s Rashed Khan, Bangladesh Liberal Democratic Party’s Shahadat Hossain Selim, and Liberal Democratic Party’s Ridwan Ahmed, all of whom joined the BNP.

Expelled BNP leader and freedom fighter Akhtaruzzaman Ranjan joined Jamaat-e-Islami, while Jatiya Party leaders Rustom Ali Farazi and Golam Moshi moved to Islami Andolan Bangladesh.

Dr Md Shahabul Haque, a professor of political studies at Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, said the most likely motivation behind the mass defections was personal gain.

“Leaders and activists from many small parties are joining the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami because they believe these parties will come to power,” he said, adding, “They want to be in a comfort zone after the election.”

He noted that frustration was also a factor. “The activities-banned Awami League members are joining other parties out of frustration. Many BNP activists were cornered after 5 August and moved to Jamaat-e-Islami as it is emerging as a new contender for power. Many Islami Andolan members joined Jamaat after the breakdown of alliances weakened their party. Why a few Jamaat members joined the IAB, however, remains intriguing.”

Shahabul Haque warned that the erosion of smaller parties could damage democratic pluralism. “If this trend continues, small parties will vanish, which is not a good sign for democracy. In the past, minor parties played a critical role in government.”

Mezbah-Ul-Azam Sowdagar, a political analyst and associate professor at Jagannath University, said ideology still mattered, but only up to a point. “Ideology is one reason, but there are others,” he said.

“People leave when they are undervalued, when they become frustrated by illegal activities within their party, or when they see better opportunities to exercise power elsewhere. Party switching happens on a case-by-case basis across different parties.”