Bangladesh’s trade and investment relations with China are set for a major leap, as economists and business leaders foresee the partnership evolving into a “game-changing” economic alliance in the coming years.

They expect that deeper engagement under the Belt and Road Initiative, coupled with rising Chinese investments and broader market access, will help Bangladesh diversify exports, attract high-tech industries, and achieve faster growth in the post-LDC era.

Expanding trade and investment

According to data from the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB) and Bangladesh Bank, total bilateral trade between Bangladesh and China reached $17.35 billion in FY24. Bangladesh’s exports to China stood at $715.38 million, while imports from China totalled $16.64 billion.

Trade between the two nations was $18.5 billion in FY23, $20 billion in FY22, $13.6 billion in FY21, and $12 billion in FY20.

Cumulative Chinese investment in Bangladesh from 2001 to March 2025 amounted to $1.53 billion, with major allocations in power ($868.06m), textiles and apparel ($346.18m), and pharmaceuticals and chemicals ($8.17m). Other sectors included food ($4.98m), trading ($56.33m), agriculture and fishing ($1.03m), construction ($46.41m), leather ($20.37m), and miscellaneous sectors ($185.09m).

Dhaka Chamber of Commerce & Industry (DCCI) President Taskeen Ahmed said China remains Bangladesh’s top import partner, maintaining multidimensional cooperation in trade, infrastructure, industry, power, and education.

“The relationship and strategic partnership between Bangladesh and China is deepening further,” said Taskeen, also Vice-Chairman of IFAD Group. “DCCI plans to organise a business delegation to China during the first quarter of 2026. The chamber and the Chinese Embassy can jointly hold events to promote Chinese investment in Bangladesh and identify re-export opportunities for global markets.”

Strength built on five decades of trust

Economist Dr Mohammad Omar Farooq, Professor and Head of Economics at United International University (UIU), noted that China had been a “trusted partner” in Bangladesh’s development, particularly in infrastructure and connectivity.

“For the past five decades, China has been a trusted partner in Bangladesh’s development. The potential remains huge, but our export basket is too narrow, and meeting China’s strict quality and packaging standards is difficult,” he said.

Dr Farooq added that Bangladesh could expand exports beyond garments – into agro-products, seafood, ICT, leather, and light engineering – and attract Chinese investment in special economic zones to integrate with global value chains.

“Friendship with China gives us a strong base, but our own preparedness will determine whether the next 50 years bring balanced and sustainable gains,” he observed. “To truly benefit, Bangladesh must diversify, upgrade quality, strengthen logistics, and negotiate smarter trade deals.”

Banking, technology and skills

Khorshed Alam, President of the Bangladesh China Chamber of Commerce & Industry (BCCCI), stressed the need for Chinese investment in Bangladesh’s banking sector.

“We need at least two Chinese banks in Bangladesh to handle trade directly. Around 2% of overall trade costs could be reduced if we trade through Chinese banking channels or RMB instead of the dollar,” he said.

Khorshed, also a Director of the Bangladesh Textile Mills Association (BTMA), added that China could help Bangladesh modernise its polytechnic education system to produce more technicians for industries such as textiles and construction.

“China possesses the latest technology across sectors – from manufacturing to education. Collaboration can help us update curricula and strengthen our human resources. Chinese investors can also explore opportunities in Bangladesh’s stock market,” he added.

Belt and road initiative to strengthen connectivity

The second edition of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Exhibition was recently held in Dhaka, organised by the Chinese Embassy to enhance economic, commercial, and technological cooperation.

Chinese Ambassador Yao Wen noted that Bangladesh was the first South Asian nation to respond to the BRI, marking “a new dimension” in regional cooperation.

“Over the past 50 years, China has taken many socio-economic development initiatives. During the interim government period, China has become the largest source of investment in Bangladesh. In the first half of this year alone, Chinese investment rose by 254.3% compared to August last year,” he said.

Yao Wen reaffirmed China’s readiness to cooperate further in trade and investment.

Commerce Adviser Sk. Bashir Uddin, attending the event as chief guest, said Bangladesh was on the verge of transforming from a half-trillion-dollar economy to a one-trillion-dollar economy.

“We now need collective efforts to foster trade and investment, and China can play a crucial role in this transformation,” he remarked.

Push for free trade agreement

Ambassador Yao Wen also said both countries were discussing Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations to expand financial support and attract more Chinese investors.

“Institutional protection is essential for creating an investment-friendly environment. To this end, Bangladesh and China will work jointly,” he said.

“This initiative will increase Chinese entrepreneurs’ confidence and interest in investing in Bangladesh. China will continue supporting Bangladesh in enhancing trade and investment for sustainable development and better living standards,” the envoy added.

Mustafa Kamal Mujeri, Executive Director of the Institute for Inclusive Finance and Development (InM), observed that Bangladesh needed a proactive approach once an FTA is finalised.

“China is far ahead in trade with Bangladesh. We must adopt an active and prudent policy to benefit once the FTA is signed,” he said.

Former BCCCI Secretary General Al Mamun Mridha expressed frustration over the slow pace of FTA progress.

“We have been talking about an FTA with China for three years, but apart from a feasibility study, nothing has moved forward. Only a formal agreement can help Bangladesh capture the Chinese market,” he remarked.

Untapped export potential

Experts believe China’s vast consumer base offers immense opportunities for Bangladeshi exports, but product diversification, state-level negotiations, and focus on Geographical Indication (GI) items are crucial.

Bangladesh’s main exports to China currently include T-shirts, trousers, jute yarn, sesame seeds, and aluminium scrap. Yet, there is potential for seafood, IT outsourcing, blue economy products, mangoes, jute, leather, and GI-certified goods.

Dr Farooq said Bangladesh could benefit from China’s growing middle class and demand for eco-friendly products.

“Our RMG, leather, and jute sectors are well placed to meet China’s needs. Leather products hold strong potential as China reduces domestic tanning, while jute aligns with its green initiatives,” he said. “But to succeed, Bangladesh must overcome tariffs, standards, branding, and distribution barriers, while improving governance and stability at home.”

BGMEA Director Mohammed Sohel said Bangladesh had failed to fully utilise China’s duty-free access for 98% of its goods.

“We export mostly basic garments like T-shirts and trousers. China once offered a good opportunity among its mid- and lower-income communities, but the market has since narrowed after losing the US trade,” he said. “Without government-level negotiations and support, Bangladesh cannot capture China’s market.”

Broader investment outlook

BCCCI President Khorshed Alam pointed out that “China dominates most global markets by manufacturing almost everything,” noting Bangladesh’s heavy reliance on Chinese imports for both raw materials and finished goods.

DCCI President Taskeen Ahmed urged Chinese investors to look beyond traditional sectors.

“We invite Chinese companies to expand into agribusiness, food processing, ICT, renewable energy, automobiles, light engineering, footwear, logistics, medical equipment, API, semiconductors, healthcare, and shipbuilding,” he said.

He also called for joint ventures in the jute sector, saying these could “create strong local brands for global markets”.

As both countries move towards deeper cooperation, experts agree that the Bangladesh-China partnership – built on five decades of trust – is now entering a crucial phase. How Dhaka leverages Chinese investment, technology, and trade access will determine whether this relationship truly becomes the “game changer” economists predict.

The reporter can be reached at [email protected]