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The Iran war in the Middle East has not yet reached a resolution. The ceasefire agreement that the United States has signed with Iran is still in effect. The two countries are continuing talks to reach a final ceasefire. Many countries, including China, Pakistan, Egypt, Qatar and Turkey, are active in mediating the ceasefire. In such a situation, a minimum of mutual trust and confidence between the two countries is important for maintaining the ceasefire. The recent missile attacks and counterattacks prove that all signs of a resumption of the war between the two countries remain.
As the two countries agreed to a ceasefire, as they agreed to sit at the negotiating table, and as two rounds of talks were held through mediation by Pakistan, and as the issue of a permanent ceasefire was also discussed in the recent China-US talks, and lastly, as Donald Trump promised talks in his Truth Social message, a political and economic order around the world was about to return. The stock market was gaining momentum in one place or another. The oil market was stabilising. In this situation, such signs of war will once again unsettle the entire world.
The United States has made nuclear enrichment and capability the main issue in the peace talks with Iran. Donald Trump may claim a victory if there is any progress in talks on this issue. Iran had already expressed its willingness to make significant concessions on this issue while Iran-US talks continued since the beginning of the war. Iran repeatedly stated that it did not have any intention to use its enriched uranium for military purposes, but it always insisted on its peaceful use. Even in the pre-war meetings, Iran made it clear in unambiguous terms. Oman confirmed that the talks were on the right track. But still, the US unilaterally attacked Iran. It is difficult for ordinary people to perceive how much substance is concealed behind the rhetoric of world leaders.
The new issue in the negotiation talks is the management of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is taking a hard line on this issue. It insists that it controls the strait. The US wants the Strait of Hormuz to be free of any influence, which is exactly what it was before. It means the US does not want any Iranian dominance there. At the moment, there is a gap between what the US is briefing the media and what Iran is saying. The US claims that there is progress in the talks and they are close to an agreement, particularly on the Hormuz issue, but Iran is denying the very issue. The US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is claiming that no sanctions will be lifted on Iran. Iran will have to bow down and earn every sanction. It means Iran will have to accept the conditions put by the US against every lift. The international community still hopes that if there is progress in the negotiations on every other issue, then the Strait of Hormuz will not remain a bone of contention.
The US is also trying to bring the abnormality of Iran’s internal politics and governing system to the fore. And it wants to expose its weaknesses to the public. A few days ago, news spread in the international media that the Iranian president had resigned, and subsequently, the Republican Guard Regiment assumed total authority in Iran. Along with this, news was also spread that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mujtaba Khamenei, is now becoming more vocal and has assumed the active command. He is influencing all state decisions in Iran. But on the contrary, Iran has always said that these are baseless. Again, in addition to the Iran-US conflict, the international community also wants to see a viable solution to the conflict that has spread between Lebanon and Israel. Israel has always ignored international norms. It has further proved that notion by continuing to attack Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. It is also said that a major difference has emerged between the United States and Israel on the management of Middle East affairs. Israel is trying to keep the United States on a hard line. Analysts believe that a permanent agreement between Iran and the United States may be possible. But bringing Israel to the brink is a painstaking task.
Therefore, after a possible Iran-US agreement, world leaders will have to refocus on deterring Israel. Otherwise, this poisonous boil will continue to cause discomfort. A peaceful Middle East largely depends on deterring Israel and on ensuring freedom and justice for the Palestinian people. Whatever remaining conflicts, it is hoped, will then be resolved eventually.
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The writer is a former Bangladeshi Ambassador